Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 1.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$1.1K
-$68.99
84.2¢ → 94¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 84¢ | $825.09 | $923.31 | +$156.67 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 85¢ | $90.95 | $106.89 | -$2.14 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Underavg 16¢ | $227.19 | $85.2 | -$222.93 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.4 | -$0.59 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$825.09
Value
$923.31
PnL
+$156.67
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$90.95
Value
$106.89
PnL
-$2.14
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$227.19
Value
$85.2
PnL
-$222.93
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.4
PnL
-$0.59
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.