Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Real Racing Club, while the market favors Real Madrid CF (62%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Real Racing Club (71%) · Real Racing Club at 39¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Real Racing Club
7
Real Racing Club 71%
$3.2K
$44.9
38.1¢ → 38.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralReal Racing Club at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Real Madrid CF 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Real Racing Club. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Real Racing Clubavg 37.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$38.26 | 50% 25606-25439 (51045) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Real Racing Clubavg 38.9¢ | $754.58 | $755.72 | +$1.14 | 59% 46810-33082 (79892) |
CA CannaeCTR | Real Racing Clubavg 37.5¢ | $148.61 | $152.56 | +$3.95 | 53% 16101-14270 (30371) |
GH ghorrockCTR | Real Racing Clubavg 38¢ | $105.24 | $92.26 | +$1.62 | 56% 14204-11005 (25209) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Real Racing Clubavg 38.6¢ | $57.84 | $57.75 | -$0.09 | 57% 29203-21595 (50798) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Real Madrid CFavg 62¢ | $6.82 | $6.82 | +$0 | 50% 7121-7157 (14278) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Real Madrid CFavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3.1 | +$0.03 | 52% 7480-6775 (14255) |
Invested
$2,100.64
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$38.26
Record
50%
25606-25439 (51045)
Invested
$754.58
Value
$755.72
PnL
+$1.14
Record
59%
46810-33082 (79892)
Invested
$148.61
Value
$152.56
PnL
+$3.95
Record
53%
16101-14270 (30371)
Invested
$105.24
Value
$92.26
PnL
+$1.62
Record
56%
14204-11005 (25209)
Invested
$57.84
Value
$57.75
PnL
-$0.09
Record
57%
29203-21595 (50798)
Invested
$6.82
Value
$6.82
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7121-7157 (14278)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.1
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
7480-6775 (14255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
GoalLineGhost
CTRReal Racing Club — $2.1K
UpTheBlues
CTRReal Racing Club — $755.72
Cannae
CTRReal Racing Club — $152.56
ghorrock
CTRReal Racing Club — $92.26
LeLynxMalynx
CTRReal Racing Club — $57.75
Forecastication2
Real Madrid CF — $6.82
ameisgoat11
Real Madrid CF — $3.1