Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $787 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$787
$6.99
92¢ → 91.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 92¢ | $514.54 | $419.4 | +$10.36 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 92¢ | $238.79 | $234.89 | -$3.89 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 92¢ | $103.5 | $101.81 | -$1.69 | 45% 669-828 (1497) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $24.14 | $25.49 | +$1.34 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $4.68 | $5.56 | +$0.88 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$514.54
Value
$419.4
PnL
+$10.36
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$238.79
Value
$234.89
PnL
-$3.89
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$103.5
Value
$101.81
PnL
-$1.69
Record
45%
669-828 (1497)
Invested
$24.14
Value
$25.49
PnL
+$1.34
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.68
Value
$5.56
PnL
+$0.88
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.