Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$2.0K
-$774.61
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | -$154.47 | 98% 13363-214 (13577) |
MI MinevaJCTR | Underavg 51.6¢ | $810.57 | $118.91 | -$608.56 | 57% 1048-784 (1832) |
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609<$100 | Overavg 89.8¢ | $27.12 | $27.78 | +$0.67 | 82% 2438-547 (2985) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.8¢ | $10 | $9.21 | -$0.79 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 18.8¢ | $19.97 | $8.51 | -$11.46 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $2.58 | $2.58 | -$0 | 58% 10670-7658 (18328) |
Invested
$1,953.4
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$154.47
Record
98%
13363-214 (13577)
Invested
$810.57
Value
$118.91
PnL
-$608.56
Record
57%
1048-784 (1832)
Invested
$27.12
Value
$27.78
PnL
+$0.67
Record
82%
2438-547 (2985)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.21
PnL
-$0.79
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$19.97
Value
$8.51
PnL
-$11.46
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.58
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
10670-7658 (18328)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.