Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$1.2K
-$14.14
59.6¢ → 100¢
+68% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 56.2¢ | $499.51 | $888.06 | +$388.55 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
MI MinevaJCTR | Underavg 23.5¢ | $494.1 | $221.19 | -$268.17 | 57% 1048-784 (1832) |
 bernardi22<$100 | Overavg 98¢ | $50 | $50.97 | +$0.99 | 56% 1299-1019 (2318) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.98 | +$0 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 98% 13363-214 (13577) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.7¢ | $72.73 | $0.17 | -$72.65 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 47.7¢ | $63 | $0.13 | -$62.87 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
Invested
$499.51
Value
$888.06
PnL
+$388.55
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$494.1
Value
$221.19
PnL
-$268.17
Record
57%
1048-784 (1832)
bernardi22<$100Invested
$50
Value
$50.97
PnL
+$0.99
Record
56%
1299-1019 (2318)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
98%
13363-214 (13577)
Invested
$72.73
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$72.65
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$63
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$62.87
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.