Exact Score: Real Racing Club 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$4.9K
-$105.69
91¢ → 94.5¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 90¢ | $3.3K | $3.2K | -$109.01 | 49% 1199-1227 (2426) |
 RN1 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$6.38 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90¢ | $202.5 | $195.86 | +$13.5 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $80 | $77.2 | +$4.4 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $70.72 | $65.86 | -$4.86 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $40.11 | $38.72 | +$0.37 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $14.15 | $10.44 | -$3.71 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
Invested
$3,325.81
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$109.01
Record
49%
1199-1227 (2426)
RN1Invested
$1,298.65
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$6.38
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
VeryLucky888Invested
$202.5
Value
$195.86
PnL
+$13.5
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$80
Value
$77.2
PnL
+$4.4
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$70.72
Value
$65.86
PnL
-$4.86
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$40.11
Value
$38.72
PnL
+$0.37
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$14.15
Value
$10.44
PnL
-$3.71
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.