Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
-$16.74
62.2¢ → 60.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 37.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$44.31 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 37.7¢ | $898.04 | $951.8 | +$41.87 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60.1¢ | $332.19 | $331.86 | +$2.44 | |
AN AnonymousUsername | Yesavg 62.3¢ | $474.26 | $457 | -$13.44 | 72% 6827-2619 (9446) |
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 62.3¢ | $105.12 | $102 | -$3.12 | 55% 7313-5881 (13194) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $37.21 | $36.6 | -$0.31 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $14.75 | $14.75 | +$0.12 | 53% 16112-14276 (30388) |
Invested
$1,230.23
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$44.31
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Both legs:
Invested
$474.26
Value
$457
PnL
-$13.44
Record
72%
6827-2619 (9446)
0xheavy888Invested
$105.12
Value
$102
PnL
-$3.12
Record
55%
7313-5881 (13194)
Invested
$37.21
Value
$36.6
PnL
-$0.31
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
Invested
$14.75
Value
$14.75
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
16112-14276 (30388)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.