Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 5.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$2.7K
$13.59
97.6¢ → 99.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 97.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$5.48 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 RN1 | Underavg 97.6¢ | $789.48 | $797.06 | +$7.57 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
 Socialista | Underavg 96.4¢ | $385.6 | $395.4 | +$9.8 | 63% 2700-1603 (4303) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 96¢ | $50.88 | $52.23 | +$1.27 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 96.2¢ | $13.8 | $14.23 | +$0.42 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
Invested
$1,494.15
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$5.48
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
RN1Invested
$789.48
Value
$797.06
PnL
+$7.57
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
SocialistaInvested
$385.6
Value
$395.4
PnL
+$9.8
Record
63%
2700-1603 (4303)
Invested
$50.88
Value
$52.23
PnL
+$1.27
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$14.23
PnL
+$0.42
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.