Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 96¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$12.12

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 96¢

+9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares11,031

Combined PnL-$59.44

Over5 traders

Total Value$193.4

Total Shares2,477

Combined PnL+$71.56

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 87.6¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$171.63	65% 200-106 (306)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 85.6¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$168.32	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 91.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$66.25	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
FR freeman123	Underavg 91.9¢	$400	$399.83	-$0.17	82% 544-123 (667)
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 86.3¢	$214.24	$226.16	+$11.91	58% 1008-738 (1746)
fxwd12345CTR	Overavg 3.9¢	$50	$114.04	+$64.04	69% 1503-682 (2185)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 86.2¢	$78.22	$76.58	-$1.63	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$59.18	$67.04	+$7.85	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 94.9¢	$47.97	$48.03	+$0.07	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 7.2¢	$10.32	$9.66	-$0.66	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 91¢	$3.64	$3.58	-$0.06	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 5.5¢	$1.75	$2.08	+$0.33	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 4.6¢	$0.59	$0.59	-$0.01	57% 13809-10582 (24391)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$4,695.16

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$171.63

Record

65%

200-106 (306)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$2,619.85

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$168.32

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,633.47

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$66.25

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

freeman123

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$399.83

PnL

-$0.17

Record

82%

544-123 (667)

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$214.24

Value

$226.16

PnL

+$11.91

Record

58%

1008-738 (1746)

fxwd12345CTR

Over

Invested

$50

Value

$114.04

PnL

+$64.04

Record

69%

1503-682 (2185)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$78.22

Value

$76.58

PnL

-$1.63

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.18

Value

$67.04

PnL

+$7.85

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$47.97

Value

$48.03

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.32

Value

$9.66

PnL

-$0.66

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.64

Value

$3.58

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.75

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.33

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.