Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (56%) · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid at 100¢ · $738 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
9
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 56%
$737.77
$101.27
32.7¢ → 99.5¢
+204% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralRayo Vallecano de Madrid at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 51.1¢ | $354.72 | $377.92 | +$23.2 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 13¢ | $54.15 | $122.42 | +$68.27 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
CA CannaeCTR | RC Celta de Vigoavg 83¢ | $99.43 | $103.03 | +$3.59 | 53% 15956-14132 (30088) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | RC Celta de Vigoavg 83¢ | $53.12 | $55.04 | +$1.92 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 33.1¢ | $15.2 | $23.22 | +$8.02 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | RC Celta de Vigoavg 67¢ | $20.1 | $22.5 | +$2.4 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100 | Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 68¢ | $13.6 | $12.9 | -$0.7 | 53% 3192-2817 (6009) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Rayo Vallecano de Madridavg 33.2¢ | $13.28 | $11.26 | -$2.02 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
MI MinevaJCTR<$100 | RC Celta de Vigoavg 15¢ | $12.9 | $9.48 | -$3.42 | 58% 1008-738 (1746) |
Invested
$354.72
Value
$377.92
PnL
+$23.2
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$54.15
Value
$122.42
PnL
+$68.27
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$99.43
Value
$103.03
PnL
+$3.59
Record
53%
15956-14132 (30088)
Invested
$53.12
Value
$55.04
PnL
+$1.92
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$15.2
Value
$23.22
PnL
+$8.02
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
Invested
$20.1
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$2.4
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$12.9
PnL
-$0.7
Record
53%
3192-2817 (6009)
Invested
$13.28
Value
$11.26
PnL
-$2.02
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
Invested
$12.9
Value
$9.48
PnL
-$3.42
Record
58%
1008-738 (1746)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — $377.92
GoalLineGhost
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — $122.42
Cannae
CTRRC Celta de Vigo — $103.03
LeLynxMalynx
CTRRC Celta de Vigo — $55.04
HRTrading
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — $23.22
foooool
CTRRC Celta de Vigo — $22.5
0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — $12.9
ghorrock
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — $11.26
MinevaJ
CTRRC Celta de Vigo — $9.48