Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-10-31?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 92¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$66.25

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 91.5¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares8,433

Combined PnL+$64.84

Yes5 traders

Total Value$557.85

Total Shares2,040

Combined PnL+$1.41

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XW xwingboy	Noavg 71¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$105.63	64% 293-165 (458)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 29.3¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$128.9	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.3¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$137.83
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.93
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 89.8¢	$745.65	$689.25	-$56.4	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$487.2	$462	-$25.2	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 83.5¢	$281.66	$271.39	-$10.27	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 86.4¢	$239.49	$254.91	+$15.43	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.8¢	$61.17	$86.13	+$24.95	58% 18658-13715 (32373)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 68¢	$45.83	$45.85	+$0.02	57% 13805-10579 (24384)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 70¢	$23.6	$28.89	+$5.29	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
RN1<$100	Noavg 73¢	$21.83	$24.98	+$3.15	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$16.19	$18.16	+$1.97	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$4.8	$5.8	+$1	51% 6007-5697 (11704)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$2.6	$3.25	+$0.65	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$0.66	$0.67	+$0.01	53% 15955-14130 (30085)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$105.63

Record

64%

293-165 (458)

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,503.92

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$128.9

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

Both legs:

Yes$2,218.229.3¢-$137.83

No$1,285.7172¢+$8.93

UpTheBlues

Invested

$745.65

Value

$689.25

PnL

-$56.4

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$487.2

Value

$462

PnL

-$25.2

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$281.66

Value

$271.39

PnL

-$10.27

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$239.49

Value

$254.91

PnL

+$15.43

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.17

Value

$86.13

PnL

+$24.95

Record

58%

18658-13715 (32373)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$45.83

Value

$45.85

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$23.6

Value

$28.89

PnL

+$5.29

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

RN1<$100

Invested

$21.83

Value

$24.98

PnL

+$3.15

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$16.19

Value

$18.16

PnL

+$1.97

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

6007-5697 (11704)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.6

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.65

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.