Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 5 - 1 Athletic Club?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 45¢ · $820 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$820.06
$782.05
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
95h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $450 | +$436.11 | 25% 1322-4009 (5331) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $9.26 | $154.12 | +$144.86 | 21% 572-2206 (2778) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $5.76 | $95.85 | +$90.09 | 45% 32023-39165 (71188) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $4.08 | $67.95 | +$63.87 | 48% 70392-76030 (146422) |
AS asdkjhsad<$100 | Noavg 0.1¢ | $0.09 | $49.89 | +$49.8 | — |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 98.9¢ | $5 | $2.25 | -$2.7 | 65% 25428-13624 (39052) |
Invested
$13.89
Value
$450
PnL
+$436.11
Record
25%
1322-4009 (5331)
Invested
$9.26
Value
$154.12
PnL
+$144.86
Record
21%
572-2206 (2778)
Invested
$5.76
Value
$95.85
PnL
+$90.09
Record
45%
32023-39165 (71188)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$67.95
PnL
+$63.87
Record
48%
70392-76030 (146422)
Invested
$0.09
Value
$49.89
PnL
+$49.8
Record
—
Invested
$5
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$2.7
Record
65%
25428-13624 (39052)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.