Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 3 - 1 Athletic Club?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 40¢ · $509 held · ended Oct 10

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$508.86

Combined PnL

$423.23

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$463.56

Total Shares1,156

Combined PnL+$445.48

No2 traders

Total Value$44.72

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$22.25

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.89	$401	+$387.11	25% 1322-4009 (5331)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$4.08	$60.55	+$56.47	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$68.97	$41.31	-$25.66	50% 48656-48220 (96876)
AS asdkjhsad<$100	Noavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$3.41	+$3.41	—
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.12	$2.01	+$1.9	53% 70327-61884 (132211)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$401

PnL

+$387.11

Record

25%

1322-4009 (5331)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$60.55

PnL

+$56.47

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$68.97

Value

$41.31

PnL

-$25.66

Record

50%

48656-48220 (96876)

asdkjhsad<$100

Invested

$0.01

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$3.41

Record

—

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$1.9

Record

53%

70327-61884 (132211)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.3%

40.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.