Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2 - 0 Athletic Club?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 55¢ · $690 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$689.63
$553.98
51.5¢ → 54.7¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
96h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $453 | +$439.11 | 25% 1322-4009 (5331) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $4.08 | $68.4 | +$64.32 | 48% 70392-76030 (146422) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94¢ | $112 | $61.26 | -$44.02 | 50% 48656-48220 (96876) |
AS asdkjhsad<$100 | Noavg 0.1¢ | $0.14 | $55.25 | +$55.11 | — |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $2.76 | $46.25 | +$43.49 | 21% 572-2206 (2778) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $10 | $5.47 | -$4.03 | 57% 60639-45678 (106317) |
Invested
$13.89
Value
$453
PnL
+$439.11
Record
25%
1322-4009 (5331)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$68.4
PnL
+$64.32
Record
48%
70392-76030 (146422)
Invested
$112
Value
$61.26
PnL
-$44.02
Record
50%
48656-48220 (96876)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$55.25
PnL
+$55.11
Record
—
Invested
$2.76
Value
$46.25
PnL
+$43.49
Record
21%
572-2206 (2778)
Invested
$10
Value
$5.47
PnL
-$4.03
Record
57%
60639-45678 (106317)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.