Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1 - 3 Athletic Club?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 55¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$1.7K
$744.85
96.6¢ → 55¢
-43% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $55.5 | $671.1 | +$615.73 | 58% 51384-37337 (88721) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 96.6¢ | $839.2 | $461.56 | -$395.26 | 64% 9875-5563 (15438) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $1.0K | $450 | +$491.11 | 29% 1116-2757 (3873) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $151 | $58.5 | +$62.14 | 48% 60745-65398 (126143) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $45.27 | $24.9 | -$21.32 | 64% 9839-5498 (15337) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $23.25 | $12.79 | -$9.67 | 58% 20277-14893 (35170) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.12 | $2.25 | +$2.13 | 51% 37415-36655 (74070) |
Invested
$55.5
Value
$671.1
PnL
+$615.73
Record
58%
51384-37337 (88721)
Invested
$839.2
Value
$461.56
PnL
-$395.26
Record
64%
9875-5563 (15438)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$450
PnL
+$491.11
Record
29%
1116-2757 (3873)
Invested
$151
Value
$58.5
PnL
+$62.14
Record
48%
60745-65398 (126143)
Invested
$45.27
Value
$24.9
PnL
-$21.32
Record
64%
9839-5498 (15337)
Invested
$23.25
Value
$12.79
PnL
-$9.67
Record
58%
20277-14893 (35170)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$2.25
PnL
+$2.13
Record
51%
37415-36655 (74070)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.