Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1 - 2 Athletic Club?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 55¢ · $769 held · ended Oct 10

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$769.14

Combined PnL

$535.97

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$637.55

Total Shares1,401

Combined PnL+$534.11

No2 traders

Total Value$131.59

Total Shares241

Combined PnL+$1.86

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

107h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$11.61	$380.38	+$368.77	25% 1322-4009 (5331)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$5.4	$90.96	+$85.56	21% 572-2206 (2778)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 91¢	$141.46	$77.1	-$51.63	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$4.08	$68.71	+$64.62	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
AS asdkjhsad<$100	Noavg 1¢	$1	$54.5	+$53.5	—
SilentSharkCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.34	$50.82	+$49.48	58% 196-140 (336)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 99¢	$79.99	$36.4	-$42.8	65% 25428-13624 (39052)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.81	$10.29	+$8.48	58% 22615-16691 (39306)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$11.61

Value

$380.38

PnL

+$368.77

Record

25%

1322-4009 (5331)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.4

Value

$90.96

PnL

+$85.56

Record

21%

572-2206 (2778)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$141.46

Value

$77.1

PnL

-$51.63

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$68.71

PnL

+$64.62

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

asdkjhsad<$100

Invested

Value

$54.5

PnL

+$53.5

Record

—

SilentSharkCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.34

Value

$50.82

PnL

+$49.48

Record

58%

196-140 (336)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.99

Value

$36.4

PnL

-$42.8

Record

65%

25428-13624 (39052)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$10.29

PnL

+$8.48

Record

58%

22615-16691 (39306)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

107h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.