Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1 - 1 Athletic Club?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 53¢ · $721 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$720.89
$475.41
85.9¢ → 53¢
-38% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
73h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $442.22 | +$429.01 | 28% 1145-2969 (4114) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yes | $98.58 | $98.58 | +$92.85 | 25% 521-1561 (2082) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 86¢ | $108.5 | $67.5 | -$41 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $84.95 | $53.07 | -$31.25 | 58% 51717-37608 (89325) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $7.66 | $43.15 | +$35.75 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $19.87 | $12.36 | -$7.51 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $6.45 | $4.01 | -$2.44 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
Invested
$13.89
Value
$442.22
PnL
+$429.01
Record
28%
1145-2969 (4114)
Invested
$98.58
Value
$98.58
PnL
+$92.85
Record
25%
521-1561 (2082)
Invested
$108.5
Value
$67.5
PnL
-$41
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$84.95
Value
$53.07
PnL
-$31.25
Record
58%
51717-37608 (89325)
Invested
$7.66
Value
$43.15
PnL
+$35.75
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Invested
$19.87
Value
$12.36
PnL
-$7.51
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$4.01
PnL
-$2.44
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.