Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0 - 3 Athletic Club?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 75¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.7K
$645.93
97.5¢ → 74.7¢
-23% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
50h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 97.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.2K | -$375.52 | 47% 1327-1519 (2846) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $104 | $1.1K | +$950.56 | 51% 24195-22931 (47126) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 97.3¢ | $247.9 | $190.24 | -$57.66 | 58% 19331-14228 (33559) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $18.34 | $161.13 | +$142.79 | 58% 50255-36294 (86549) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $52.46 | $40.31 | -$12.15 | 48% 59185-63178 (122363) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $9.14 | $7.04 | -$2.1 | 50% 36322-35805 (72127) |
Invested
$1,643.4
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$375.52
Record
47%
1327-1519 (2846)
Invested
$104
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$950.56
Record
51%
24195-22931 (47126)
Invested
$247.9
Value
$190.24
PnL
-$57.66
Record
58%
19331-14228 (33559)
Invested
$18.34
Value
$161.13
PnL
+$142.79
Record
58%
50255-36294 (86549)
Invested
$52.46
Value
$40.31
PnL
-$12.15
Record
48%
59185-63178 (122363)
Invested
$9.14
Value
$7.04
PnL
-$2.1
Record
50%
36322-35805 (72127)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.