Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0 - 2 Athletic Club?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 55¢ · $789 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$788.78
$522.68
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
55h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $453 | +$439.11 | 28% 1145-2969 (4114) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 94¢ | $239.23 | $139.21 | -$100.02 | 58% 51717-37608 (89325) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $3.68 | $68.4 | +$64.32 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
 SilentSharkCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.75 | $67.95 | +$67.2 | 60% 171-115 (286) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $4.55 | $34.33 | +$29.78 | 58% 21687-15792 (37479) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $3.6 | $25.88 | +$22.28 | 51% 38217-37441 (75658) |
Invested
$13.89
Value
$453
PnL
+$439.11
Record
28%
1145-2969 (4114)
Invested
$239.23
Value
$139.21
PnL
-$100.02
Record
58%
51717-37608 (89325)
Invested
$3.68
Value
$68.4
PnL
+$64.32
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
SilentSharkCTR<$100Invested
$0.75
Value
$67.95
PnL
+$67.2
Record
60%
171-115 (286)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$34.33
PnL
+$29.78
Record
58%
21687-15792 (37479)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$25.88
PnL
+$22.28
Record
51%
38217-37441 (75658)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.