Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0 - 0 Athletic Club?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $210 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$210.23
$70.32
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
81h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $81.42 | $126.49 | +$45.07 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $16.71 | $31.03 | +$15.52 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $23.79 | $22.5 | -$1.29 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $49.01 | $18.13 | +$11.72 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $12.78 | $12.08 | -$0.69 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$81.42
Value
$126.49
PnL
+$45.07
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$16.71
Value
$31.03
PnL
+$15.52
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$23.79
Value
$22.5
PnL
-$1.29
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Invested
$49.01
Value
$18.13
PnL
+$11.72
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$12.78
Value
$12.08
PnL
-$0.69
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.