Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 72¢ · $529 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$528.79
$48.67
45.2¢ → 72¢
+59% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
59h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 45.2¢ | $237.47 | $378 | +$147 | 58% 51717-37608 (89325) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 56¢ | $177.01 | $91.28 | -$85.73 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 45.2¢ | $21.22 | $33.77 | +$13.13 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $26.27 | $13.13 | -$13.13 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $8.4 | $12.6 | -$12.6 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
Invested
$237.47
Value
$378
PnL
+$147
Record
58%
51717-37608 (89325)
Invested
$177.01
Value
$91.28
PnL
-$85.73
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Invested
$21.22
Value
$33.77
PnL
+$13.13
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
Invested
$26.27
Value
$13.13
PnL
-$13.13
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$12.6
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.