Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 3 - 1 FC Barcelona?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $466 held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$466.42

Combined PnL

$40.16

Smart Money Entry

95.8¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$78.03

Total Shares2,057

Combined PnL+$35.39

No8 traders

Total Value$388.39

Total Shares394

Combined PnL+$4.77

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$39.78	$78	+$38.22	25% 1318-4001 (5319)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$78.95	$76.11	+$0.55	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$77.2	$74.42	+$0.05	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$56.1	$59.97	+$3.87	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$53.73	$56.35	+$2.62	46% 30579-35678 (66257)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$33.69	$39.7	-$3.36	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$35.37	$36.85	+$1.48	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$33.88	$34.98	+$1.1	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$49.85	$10.02	-$1.55	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$2.86	$0.03	-$2.83	53% 70213-61793 (132006)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.78

Value

$78

PnL

+$38.22

Record

25%

1318-4001 (5319)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$78.95

Value

$76.11

PnL

+$0.55

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$77.2

Value

$74.42

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$56.1

Value

$59.97

PnL

+$3.87

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$53.73

Value

$56.35

PnL

+$2.62

Record

46%

30579-35678 (66257)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$33.69

Value

$39.7

PnL

-$3.36

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$35.37

Value

$36.85

PnL

+$1.48

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$33.88

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$1.1

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$49.85

Value

$10.02

PnL

-$1.55

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.83

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.