Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 3 - 0 FC Barcelona?
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 75%
$3.9K
$7.87
96.7¢ → 96¢
-1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$9.05 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $751.76 | $747.96 | -$3.8 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.5¢ | $667.37 | $663.56 | -$3.8 | 46% 30568-35672 (66240) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 97¢ | $211.39 | $213.64 | +$2.25 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 98.4¢ | $115.93 | $116.16 | +$0.23 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 96.4¢ | $111.9 | $112.26 | +$0.36 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 96.3¢ | $103.15 | $102.78 | -$0.37 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $65.54 | $64.58 | -$0.96 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $40.2 | $45.61 | +$5.41 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $28.6 | $41.08 | +$12.48 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $24.78 | $30 | +$5.22 | 25% 1314-3963 (5277) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $2.82 | $2.73 | -$0.09 | 45% 14423-17722 (32145) |
Invested
$1,743.79
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$9.05
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Invested
$751.76
Value
$747.96
PnL
-$3.8
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$667.37
Value
$663.56
PnL
-$3.8
Record
46%
30568-35672 (66240)
Invested
$211.39
Value
$213.64
PnL
+$2.25
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$115.93
Value
$116.16
PnL
+$0.23
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$111.9
Value
$112.26
PnL
+$0.36
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$103.15
Value
$102.78
PnL
-$0.37
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Invested
$65.54
Value
$64.58
PnL
-$0.96
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$40.2
Value
$45.61
PnL
+$5.41
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$28.6
Value
$41.08
PnL
+$12.48
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
Invested
$24.78
Value
$30
PnL
+$5.22
Record
25%
1314-3963 (5277)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.73
PnL
-$0.09
Record
45%
14423-17722 (32145)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.