Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 0 FC Barcelona?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$25.57

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 92.3¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$829.71

Total Shares888

Combined PnL-$22.68

Yes6 traders

Total Value$100.46

Total Shares2,668

Combined PnL+$48.25

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Pan9X	Noavg 95.6¢	$367.62	$356.64	-$10.97	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 96.3¢	$268.93	$259.21	-$9.72	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.5¢	$215.84	$213.86	-$1.99	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$134.13	$157.23	+$23.1	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
└ No leg	Noavg 97.3¢	$95.44	$93.67	-$1.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.7¢	$38.69	$63.56	+$24.87
LI LimousinARB<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$82.18	$96.67	+$14.49	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
└ No leg	Noavg 97.3¢	$59.34	$56.6	-$2.74
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.1¢	$22.84	$40.07	+$17.23
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$20.78	$50	+$29.22	25% 1314-3963 (5277)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$19.53	$36.53	+$17	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$6.38	$6.68	+$0.3	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$3.39	$3.81	+$0.42	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.9	$3.19	+$1.3	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.24	$0.25	+$0.02	57% 22335-16609 (38944)

Pan9X

Invested

$367.62

Value

$356.64

PnL

-$10.97

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

38791873984189

Invested

$268.93

Value

$259.21

PnL

-$9.72

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

SnakeBall

Invested

$215.84

Value

$213.86

PnL

-$1.99

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Invested

$134.13

Value

$157.23

PnL

+$23.1

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

Both legs:

No$95.4497.3¢-$1.77

Yes$38.692.7¢+$24.87

LimousinARB<$100

Invested

$82.18

Value

$96.67

PnL

+$14.49

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

Both legs:

Invested

$20.78

Value

$50

PnL

+$29.22

Record

25%

1314-3963 (5277)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.53

Value

$36.53

PnL

+$17

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.38

Value

$6.68

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.42

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$1.3

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.6%

92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.