Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 3 FC Barcelona?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 95¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

-$60.25

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 94.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares13,074

Combined PnL-$139.09

Yes5 traders

Total Value$537.1

Total Shares9,509

Combined PnL+$78.84

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 94.4¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$1.91	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 94.6¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$3.26	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
VE Venusian	Noavg 94¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$153.38	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
NM NM-P	Noavg 94¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$4.25	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-P	Noavg 94¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$0	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93.7¢	$968.23	$971.66	+$3.43	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
LI Limousin	Noavg 94¢	$647.65	$651.66	+$4.01	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 5.7¢	$497.82	$483.71	-$14.11	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 93¢	$59.4	$63.35	+$3.95	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$52.36	$38.55	+$1.27	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$12.11	$11.25	-$0.86	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$27.78	$3.25	+$92.47	25% 1314-3963 (5277)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.26	$0.34	+$0.08	57% 24661-18268 (42929)

LightParadox

Invested

$3,061.41

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.91

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

MadridTime

Invested

$2,913.53

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$3.26

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Venusian

Invested

$2,621.42

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$153.38

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

NM-P

Invested

$1,099.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$4.25

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-P

Invested

$1,099.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

SnakeBall

Invested

$968.23

Value

$971.66

PnL

+$3.43

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Limousin

Invested

$647.65

Value

$651.66

PnL

+$4.01

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$497.82

Value

$483.71

PnL

-$14.11

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$59.4

Value

$63.35

PnL

+$3.95

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.36

Value

$38.55

PnL

+$1.27

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.11

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$0.86

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.78

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$92.47

Record

25%

1314-3963 (5277)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.08

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.