Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 0 - 1 FC Barcelona?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$2.1K
$78.47
94.8¢ → 94.8¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 95.1¢ | $610.91 | $611.55 | +$0.64 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.5¢ | $541.74 | $515.91 | +$3.18 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 95¢ | $379.42 | $379.55 | +$0.13 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 94.5¢ | $199.64 | $165.14 | +$1.09 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 94.8¢ | $162.45 | $154.57 | +$0.52 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 94.8¢ | $162.45 | $154.57 | +$0.44 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $24.78 | $97 | +$72.22 | 25% 1314-3963 (5277) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $28.29 | $27.95 | -$0.34 | 50% 23449-23463 (46912) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $12.54 | $11.93 | +$0.03 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $9.05 | $9.42 | +$0.37 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $8.87 | $9.05 | +$0.18 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
Invested
$610.91
Value
$611.55
PnL
+$0.64
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
Invested
$541.74
Value
$515.91
PnL
+$3.18
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Invested
$379.42
Value
$379.55
PnL
+$0.13
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$199.64
Value
$165.14
PnL
+$1.09
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$162.45
Value
$154.57
PnL
+$0.52
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$162.45
Value
$154.57
PnL
+$0.44
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$24.78
Value
$97
PnL
+$72.22
Record
25%
1314-3963 (5277)
Invested
$28.29
Value
$27.95
PnL
-$0.34
Record
50%
23449-23463 (46912)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$11.93
PnL
+$0.03
Record
57%
24661-18268 (42929)
Invested
$9.05
Value
$9.42
PnL
+$0.37
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Invested
$8.87
Value
$9.05
PnL
+$0.18
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.