Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 5.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 99¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

-$384.64

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 99.3¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares11,997

Combined PnL-$391.55

Over2 traders

Total Value$33.65

Total Shares1,006

Combined PnL+$6.91

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 98.3¢	$8.5K	$8.1K	-$409.77	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 96.6¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$88.03	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 94¢	$469.25	$406.72	-$62.52	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 94.2¢	$230.69	$199.9	-$9.19	58% 1008-738 (1746)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 88¢	$33.46	$36.12	+$2.66	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 4.6¢	$9.43	$20.41	+$10.98	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.2¢	$17.3	$13.24	-$4.06	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 93¢	$5.3	$4.53	-$0.76	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

RN1

Under

Invested

$8,530.4

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$409.77

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,679.84

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$88.03

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$469.25

Value

$406.72

PnL

-$62.52

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$230.69

Value

$199.9

PnL

-$9.19

Record

58%

1008-738 (1746)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$33.46

Value

$36.12

PnL

+$2.66

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.43

Value

$20.41

PnL

+$10.98

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.3

Value

$13.24

PnL

-$4.06

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$5.3

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$0.76

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.