Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 99¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$10.6K
-$66.96
82.9¢ → 99¢
+19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI MinevaJ | Underavg 84.9¢ | $5.6K | $5.7K | +$69.42 | 58% 1008-738 (1746) |
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8 | Underavg 78¢ | $3.4K | $3.7K | -$21.59 | 65% 200-106 (306) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 90.9¢ | $591.67 | $647.75 | +$56.07 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 88¢ | $637 | $487.19 | -$149.82 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $26.94 | $17.09 | -$9.85 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 85¢ | $10.9 | $12.76 | +$1.86 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 3.8¢ | $20.18 | $8.5 | -$11.68 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 7.7¢ | $8.9 | $7.52 | -$1.38 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
Invested
$5,638.49
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$69.42
Record
58%
1008-738 (1746)
Invested
$3,368.96
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$21.59
Record
65%
200-106 (306)
Invested
$591.67
Value
$647.75
PnL
+$56.07
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$637
Value
$487.19
PnL
-$149.82
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$26.94
Value
$17.09
PnL
-$9.85
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$12.76
PnL
+$1.86
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$20.18
Value
$8.5
PnL
-$11.68
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.9
Value
$7.52
PnL
-$1.38
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.