Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 98¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 31

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 97.5¢

+42% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares10,732

Combined PnL-$513.53

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares16,457

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 68¢	$3.4K	$4.6K	+$1.2K	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 70.5¢	$4.7K	$3.4K	$-1.2K	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 42¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	-$957.33	47% 2510-2803 (5313)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 42¢	$1.3K	$858.8	-$477.11	54% 4884-4115 (8999)
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 74.1¢	$1.8K	$819.39	-$486.21	58% 1008-738 (1746)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 59¢	$637.97	$786.43	-$6.68	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 19.4¢	$608.88	$329.99	-$278.89	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 31¢	$261.29	$271.12	+$9.83	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57¢	$106.29	$136.12	+$29.83
└ Over leg	Overavg 31¢	$155	$135	-$20
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 42¢	$132.65	$121.56	-$11.09	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59¢	$53.69	$62.34	+$8.65
└ Over leg	Overavg 42¢	$78.96	$59.22	-$19.74
HRTrading	Underavg 72.5¢	$114.23	$107.89	-$6.34	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 61¢	$57.9	$69.28	+$15.66	48% 922-993 (1915)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 34.3¢	$78.21	$66.61	-$11.6	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 85¢	$42.5	$36.5	-$6	47% 4570-5075 (9645)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 6.4¢	$16.81	$17.16	+$0.34	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$20.64	$15.36	-$5.28	50% 3870-3825 (7695)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$10.69	$1.7	-$9	59% 10176-7169 (17345)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,398.61

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$4,659.47

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$4,020.79

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$957.33

Record

47%

2510-2803 (5313)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$1,335.91

Value

$858.8

PnL

-$477.11

Record

54%

4884-4115 (8999)

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$1,771.57

Value

$819.39

PnL

-$486.21

Record

58%

1008-738 (1746)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$637.97

Value

$786.43

PnL

-$6.68

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$608.88

Value

$329.99

PnL

-$278.89

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$261.29

Value

$271.12

PnL

+$9.83

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

Both legs:

Under$106.2957¢+$29.83

Over$15531¢-$20

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$132.65

Value

$121.56

PnL

-$11.09

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

Both legs:

Invested

$114.23

Value

$107.89

PnL

-$6.34

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$57.9

Value

$69.28

PnL

+$15.66

Record

48%

922-993 (1915)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$78.21

Value

$66.61

PnL

-$11.6

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$42.5

Value

$36.5

PnL

-$6

Record

47%

4570-5075 (9645)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.81

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$0.34

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.64

Value

$15.36

PnL

-$5.28

Record

50%

3870-3825 (7695)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.69

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$9

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.