Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,813

Combined PnL-$586.99

Under8 traders

Total Value$308.3

Total Shares6,317

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 77.2¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$142.72	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 73.3¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$342.73	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
bernardi22	Overavg 98¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$12.24	56% 1284-998 (2282)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 88¢	$504	$412.36	-$91.64	95% 23022-1157 (24179)
poshposh	Overavg 86.3¢	$128.16	$148.44	+$20.28	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
FO foooool	Overavg 75.7¢	$135.22	$128.57	-$6.65	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
MI MinevaJCTR	Underavg 19.3¢	$522.59	$101.08	-$3.31	58% 1008-738 (1746)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 21.8¢	$972.14	$78.14	-$894	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 84.4¢	$81.18	$69.26	-$11.92	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$20.86	$53.1	+$32.24	42% 2244-3042 (5286)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 14.8¢	$20.27	$38.43	+$18.17	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$21	$34.59	+$13.59	51% 3416-3341 (6757)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 81.7¢	$21.61	$23.38	+$1.76	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 81¢	$10.2	$9.07	-$1.13	55% 8305-6697 (15002)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 15.1¢	$1.24	$2.29	+$1.05	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 15.3¢	$201.07	$0.66	-$200.41	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$7.21	$0.01	-$7.2	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,534.22

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$142.72

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,713.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$342.73

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

bernardi22

Over

Invested

$1,199.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.24

Record

56%

1284-998 (2282)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$504

Value

$412.36

PnL

-$91.64

Record

95%

23022-1157 (24179)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$128.16

Value

$148.44

PnL

+$20.28

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

foooool

Over

Invested

$135.22

Value

$128.57

PnL

-$6.65

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

MinevaJCTR

Under

Invested

$522.59

Value

$101.08

PnL

-$3.31

Record

58%

1008-738 (1746)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$972.14

Value

$78.14

PnL

-$894

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$81.18

Value

$69.26

PnL

-$11.92

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.86

Value

$53.1

PnL

+$32.24

Record

42%

2244-3042 (5286)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.27

Value

$38.43

PnL

+$18.17

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

LaarsYCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21

Value

$34.59

PnL

+$13.59

Record

51%

3416-3341 (6757)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$21.61

Value

$23.38

PnL

+$1.76

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$10.2

Value

$9.07

PnL

-$1.13

Record

55%

8305-6697 (15002)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.24

Value

$2.29

PnL

+$1.05

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$201.07

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$200.41

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.21

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$7.2

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.