Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 0.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$5.7K
-$398.11
96.5¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Overavg 96.5¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | -$8.31 | 53% 2077-1862 (3939) |
MI MinevaJ | Overavg 96¢ | $173.55 | $155 | -$1.54 | 58% 1008-738 (1746) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 6.3¢ | $376.26 | $62.02 | -$314.24 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $51 | $49.98 | -$1.02 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.5¢ | $61.17 | $0.87 | -$60.3 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 7.8¢ | $12.3 | $0.08 | -$12.22 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 8.2¢ | $0.49 | $0 | -$0.49 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
Invested
$5,374.61
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$8.31
Record
53%
2077-1862 (3939)
Invested
$173.55
Value
$155
PnL
-$1.54
Record
58%
1008-738 (1746)
Invested
$376.26
Value
$62.02
PnL
-$314.24
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$51
Value
$49.98
PnL
-$1.02
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$61.17
Value
$0.87
PnL
-$60.3
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$12.3
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$12.22
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.49
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.