Will Levante UD win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 84¢ · $248 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$247.55
$0.17
83.9¢ → 84¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 84¢ | $236.46 | $236.46 | +$0 | 59% 45621-31960 (77581) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $9.11 | $9.33 | +$0.17 | 53% 15932-14110 (30042) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $0.96 | $0.96 | +$0 | 38% 385-628 (1013) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $0.8 | $0.8 | +$0 | 47% 2324-2589 (4913) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.