Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$211.9

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,077

Combined PnL+$131.48

No4 traders

Total Value$0.69

Total Shares1,385

Combined PnL-$343.38

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 90.1¢	$775.06	$859.81	+$84.75	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
ZaiZoiBele	Yesavg 99¢	$199.79	$155.4	+$18.32	80% 5044-1245 (6289)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Yesavg 50.2¢	$25.08	$49.98	+$24.89	47% 4570-5075 (9645)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 45.7¢	$7.48	$11	+$3.52	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$76.75	$0.43	-$76.32	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 63.4¢	$144.37	$0.11	-$144.26	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 63.9¢	$117.85	$0.09	-$117.76	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Noavg 15.8¢	$23.7	$0.06	-$5.04	58% 1008-738 (1746)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$775.06

Value

$859.81

PnL

+$84.75

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

ZaiZoiBele

Yes

Invested

$199.79

Value

$155.4

PnL

+$18.32

Record

80%

5044-1245 (6289)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.08

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$24.89

Record

47%

4570-5075 (9645)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.48

Value

$11

PnL

+$3.52

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$76.75

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$76.32

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$144.37

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$144.26

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$117.85

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$117.76

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Invested

$23.7

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.04

Record

58%

1008-738 (1746)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.