Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: 1st Half O/U 0.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $970 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

Total Value

$969.93

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$699.7

Total Shares700

Combined PnL+$84.15

Under7 traders

Total Value$270.24

Total Shares4,973

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 99¢	$411.49	$415.44	+$3.95	80% 5044-1245 (6289)
RN1CTR	Underavg 57.7¢	$993.03	$268.49	-$724.54	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 55.8¢	$77.57	$134.95	+$57.38	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
bernardi22<$100	Overavg 89.2¢	$74.17	$83.11	+$8.94	56% 1284-998 (2282)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 79¢	$52.32	$66.2	+$13.88	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 36.9¢	$973.14	$1.32	-$971.82	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 50¢	$200	$0.2	-$199.8	53% 3190-2813 (6003)
MI MinevaJCTR	Underavg 42.2¢	$142.55	$0.17	+$44.94	58% 1008-738 (1746)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$33.22	$0.03	-$33.19	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$26.88	$0.03	-$26.85	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$0.77	$0.01	-$0.76	47% 4570-5075 (9645)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$411.49

Value

$415.44

PnL

+$3.95

Record

80%

5044-1245 (6289)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$993.03

Value

$268.49

PnL

-$724.54

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$77.57

Value

$134.95

PnL

+$57.38

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

bernardi22<$100

Over

Invested

$74.17

Value

$83.11

PnL

+$8.94

Record

56%

1284-998 (2282)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$52.32

Value

$66.2

PnL

+$13.88

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$973.14

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$971.82

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$199.8

Record

53%

3190-2813 (6003)

MinevaJCTR

Under

Invested

$142.55

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$44.94

Record

58%

1008-738 (1746)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.22

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$33.19

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.88

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$26.85

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.76

Record

47%

4570-5075 (9645)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.