Will Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (61%) · No at 99¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 61%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

-$536.08

Smart Money Entry

82.9¢ → 99.1¢

+19% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 18 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares14,987

Combined PnL-$639.88

Yes7 traders

Total Value$321.53

Total Shares1,407

Combined PnL+$103.8

No — 61%Yes — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 82.5¢	$10.8K	$10.1K	-$718.09	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 85¢	$834.55	$967.09	+$132.55	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 18.9¢	$2.8K	$273.6	$-2.5K	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
└ No leg	Noavg 96.9¢	$193.77	$198.8	+$5.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.9¢	$2.6K	$74.8	$-2.5K
ZaiZoiBele	Noavg 94¢	$278.24	$227.92	-$50.32	80% 5044-1245 (6289)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 79¢	$197.12	$194.63	-$2.5	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 82.1¢	$187.73	$186.23	-$1.5	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
MI MinevaJCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$51.15	$115.33	+$64.18	58% 1008-738 (1746)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$78.23	$89.97	+$11.74	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$71.63	$72.21	+$0.58	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
Fuentes31CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$45	$69	+$24	53% 659-579 (1238)
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$31.12	$34.09	+$2.96	59% 2554-1782 (4336)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$23.06	$25.21	+$2.15	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 80¢	$24	$23.4	+$0.15	48% 2393-2622 (5015)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 82¢	$16.6	$15.58	-$1.01	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$9.87	$10.81	+$0.94	58% 18658-13715 (32373)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Noavg 87¢	$11.25	$9.96	-$1.29	56% 539-425 (964)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.3	$7.7	-$0.6	63% 1767-1049 (2816)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.98	$2.28	-$0.05	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.05	+$0.03	54% 56601-48769 (105370)

Anon455

Invested

$10,788

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$718.09

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$834.55

Value

$967.09

PnL

+$132.55

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,763.31

Value

$273.6

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

Both legs:

No$193.7796.9¢+$5.03

Yes$2,569.5418.9¢$-2.5K

ZaiZoiBele

Invested

$278.24

Value

$227.92

PnL

-$50.32

Record

80%

5044-1245 (6289)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$197.12

Value

$194.63

PnL

-$2.5

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$187.73

Value

$186.23

PnL

-$1.5

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

MinevaJCTR

Yes

Invested

$51.15

Value

$115.33

PnL

+$64.18

Record

58%

1008-738 (1746)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.23

Value

$89.97

PnL

+$11.74

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$71.63

Value

$72.21

PnL

+$0.58

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

Fuentes31CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45

Value

$69

PnL

+$24

Record

53%

659-579 (1238)

Saber-greedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.12

Value

$34.09

PnL

+$2.96

Record

59%

2554-1782 (4336)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$23.06

Value

$25.21

PnL

+$2.15

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$16.6

Value

$15.58

PnL

-$1.01

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.87

Value

$10.81

PnL

+$0.94

Record

58%

18658-13715 (32373)

averagejoetraders<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$9.96

PnL

-$1.29

Record

56%

539-425 (964)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$0.6

Record

63%

1767-1049 (2816)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 18 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.