Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 9.5 Total Corners

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$20.53

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 49.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares9,998

Combined PnL+$33.31

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,605

Combined PnL-$12.78

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FR fraagenCTR	Overavg 49¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$0	45% 55-67 (122)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 48.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$34.1	32% 729-1552 (2281)
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186	Underavg 52¢	$998.4	$979.2	-$9.6	52% 139-127 (266)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 51¢	$201.96	$201.96	+$0	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 52¢	$114.5	$112.3	-$2.2	49% 19156-19549 (38705)
SP SparYelCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$76.44	$78.03	-$0.8	48% 21-23 (44)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 53¢	$33.39	$32.13	-$0.94	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Underavg 52¢	$3.15	$3.09	-$0.03	55% 1742-1435 (3177)

fraagenCTR

Over

Invested

$3,438.67

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

55-67 (122)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$1,362.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$34.1

Record

32%

729-1552 (2281)

0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186

Under

Invested

$998.4

Value

$979.2

PnL

-$9.6

Record

52%

139-127 (266)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$201.96

Value

$201.96

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$114.5

Value

$112.3

PnL

-$2.2

Record

49%

19156-19549 (38705)

SparYelCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.44

Value

$78.03

PnL

-$0.8

Record

48%

21-23 (44)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$33.39

Value

$32.13

PnL

-$0.94

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Under

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.09

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

1742-1435 (3177)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.