Levante UD vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 81¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
$672.13
59.2¢ → 81¢
+37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 59.8¢ | $2.4K | $3.1K | +$663.47 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Noavg 68.3¢ | $352.13 | $308.36 | -$43.77 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.3¢ | $192.46 | $172 | -$20.45 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45.7¢ | $159.67 | $136.36 | -$23.31 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $59.1 | $55.57 | -$3.53 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $39.26 | $52.67 | +$0.48 | 74% 6673-2396 (9069) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 55.9¢ | $32.14 | $49.46 | +$17.32 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $38.37 | $37.91 | -$0.46 | 49% 19161-19553 (38714) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $30.06 | $36.31 | +$6.26 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.3¢ | $28.36 | $30.94 | +$2.58 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $20.57 | $6.58 | -$14 | 60% 3351-2262 (5613) |
Invested
$2,411.17
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$663.47
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$352.13
Value
$308.36
PnL
-$43.77
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.1
Value
$55.57
PnL
-$3.53
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$39.26
Value
$52.67
PnL
+$0.48
Record
74%
6673-2396 (9069)
Invested
$32.14
Value
$49.46
PnL
+$17.32
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$38.37
Value
$37.91
PnL
-$0.46
Record
49%
19161-19553 (38714)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$30.06
Value
$36.31
PnL
+$6.26
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$28.36
Value
$30.94
PnL
+$2.58
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$20.57
Value
$6.58
PnL
-$14
Record
60%
3351-2262 (5613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.