Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 5.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$0.31

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 98.1¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,458

Combined PnL-$55.04

Over2 traders

Total Value$62.55

Total Shares3,292

Combined PnL+$54.74

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alohaa	Underavg 99.9¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$55.04	64% 1232-697 (1929)
Socialista	Underavg 97.7¢	$390.8	$392.4	+$0	63% 2723-1610 (4333)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 0.2¢	$6.3	$61.03	+$54.74	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 1.9¢	$1.52	$1.52	+$0	49% 13013-13570 (26583)

alohaa

Under

Invested

$3,054.94

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$55.04

Record

64%

1232-697 (1929)

Socialista

Under

Invested

$390.8

Value

$392.4

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

2723-1610 (4333)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.3

Value

$61.03

PnL

+$54.74

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.