Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 4.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 91¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$1.2K
-$27.52
94.6¢ → 91.3¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 95.8¢ | $893.23 | $851.37 | -$41.86 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
MI MinevaJ | Underavg 91.3¢ | $300.37 | $300.37 | -$0 | 57% 1048-784 (1832) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 4.4¢ | $11.4 | $22.45 | +$11.05 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 95¢ | $15.29 | $17.78 | +$3.29 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
Invested
$893.23
Value
$851.37
PnL
-$41.86
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$300.37
Value
$300.37
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
1048-784 (1832)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$22.45
PnL
+$11.05
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
RN1<$100Invested
$15.29
Value
$17.78
PnL
+$3.29
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.