Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 60¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 1

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

-$873.91

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 59.9¢

-22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares11,913

Combined PnL-$983.04

Over4 traders

Total Value$773.83

Total Shares4,748

Combined PnL+$109.13

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 68.9¢	$4.6K	$3.8K	-$749.76	57% 1048-784 (1832)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 86.8¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$160.7	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
└ Under leg	Underavg 86.8¢	$2.6K	$1.8K	-$851.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 12.4¢	$297.44	$988.3	+$690.86
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 83.9¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$73.54	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 89.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$4	66% 210-107 (317)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 85.8¢	$1.1K	$816.89	-$302.82	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 16¢	$480.16	$480.16	-$0	32% 742-1577 (2319)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 7.2¢	$103.77	$154.87	+$51.1	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 14.5¢	$39.57	$98.05	+$58.48	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 41.2¢	$41.2	$40.75	-$0.45	55% 3007-2438 (5445)

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$4,599.05

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$749.76

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,944.05

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$160.7

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Both legs:

Under$2,646.6186.8¢-$851.56

Over$297.4412.4¢+$690.86

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,743.36

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$73.54

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$1,788

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$4

Record

66%

210-107 (317)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,119.71

Value

$816.89

PnL

-$302.82

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$480.16

Value

$480.16

PnL

-$0

Record

32%

742-1577 (2319)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$103.77

Value

$154.87

PnL

+$51.1

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.57

Value

$98.05

PnL

+$58.48

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.2

Value

$40.75

PnL

-$0.45

Record

55%

3007-2438 (5445)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.0%

59.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$61.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.