Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 64¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 1

Over37¢Under63¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$68.7

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 63.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,508

Combined PnL-$22.01

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,113

Combined PnL-$46.69

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 35.7¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$143.44	50% 25644-25471 (51115)
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.7¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	+$74.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.1¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$69.02
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 64¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$30	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
us391CTR	Overavg 37¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$46.69	51% 1711-1674 (3385)
0xheavy888	Underavg 63.8¢	$711.3	$719.18	-$3.27	55% 7313-5881 (13194)
CA Cannae	Underavg 62.2¢	$616.41	$639.07	+$13.48	53% 16112-14276 (30388)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 63¢	$252	$258	-$2	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 64.3¢	$9.65	$9.45	-$0.27	52% 7493-6786 (14279)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 63¢	$8.19	$8.26	+$0.07	57% 29224-21607 (50831)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,235.77

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$143.44

Record

50%

25644-25471 (51115)

Both legs:

Over$3,466.4835.7¢+$74.42

Under$1,769.2962.1¢+$69.02

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$1,280

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$30

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

us391CTR

Over

Invested

$1,151.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$46.69

Record

51%

1711-1674 (3385)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$711.3

Value

$719.18

PnL

-$3.27

Record

55%

7313-5881 (13194)

Cannae

Under

Invested

$616.41

Value

$639.07

PnL

+$13.48

Record

53%

16112-14276 (30388)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$252

Value

$258

PnL

-$2

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$9.65

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$0.27

Record

52%

7493-6786 (14279)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$8.19

Value

$8.26

PnL

+$0.07

Record

57%

29224-21607 (50831)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.