Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 36¢ · $783 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
$782.51
-$5.36
36¢ → 35.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 36¢ | $385.83 | $380.47 | -$5.36 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 65¢ | $160.28 | $158.86 | -$1.42 | 55% 7313-5881 (13194) |
TI timezonewarrior | Overavg 63¢ | $120.47 | $124.29 | +$2.87 | 45% 107-132 (239) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Overavg 65¢ | $102.69 | $101.9 | -$0.79 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $13.76 | $13.38 | -$0.56 | 53% 16112-14276 (30388) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 36.5¢ | $3.65 | $3.6 | -$0.1 | 52% 7493-6786 (14279) |
Invested
$385.83
Value
$380.47
PnL
-$5.36
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
0xheavy888Invested
$160.28
Value
$158.86
PnL
-$1.42
Record
55%
7313-5881 (13194)
Invested
$120.47
Value
$124.29
PnL
+$2.87
Record
45%
107-132 (239)
Invested
$102.69
Value
$101.9
PnL
-$0.79
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$13.38
PnL
-$0.56
Record
53%
16112-14276 (30388)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
7493-6786 (14279)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.