Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Getafe CF (50%) · Getafe CF at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Sevilla FC<1¢Getafe CF>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Getafe CF

Consensus Traders

Getafe CF 50%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$627.68

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 99.6¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGetafe CF at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Getafe CF

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sevilla FC0%

Getafe CF100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Getafe CF5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,115

Combined PnL+$318.39

Sevilla FC5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,359

Combined PnL+$309.29

Getafe CF — 50%Sevilla FC — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Getafe CFavg 84.4¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$344.2	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Sevilla FCavg 25.1¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$301.72	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
CA Cannae	Getafe CFavg 84¢	$713.43	$697.57	-$15.85	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Getafe CFavg 82¢	$50.84	$40.92	-$9.92	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sevilla FCavg 28.9¢	$30.73	$31.91	+$1.18	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
HRTrading<$100	Getafe CFavg 71.2¢	$20.73	$20.69	-$0.04	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Sevilla FCavg 32.6¢	$5.47	$4.05	-$1.42	59% 30673-21383 (52056)
GH ghorrock<$100	Getafe CFavg 80.6¢	$26.18	$3.24	+$0	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Sevilla FCavg 2¢	$35.8	$2.47	+$7.76	57% 1048-784 (1832)
RN1CTR<$100	Sevilla FCavg 23¢	$0.6	$0.64	+$0.04	54% 57146-49404 (106550)

UpTheBlues

Getafe CF

Invested

$2,524.94

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$344.2

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Sevilla FC

Invested

$1,116.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$301.72

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Cannae

Getafe CF

Invested

$713.43

Value

$697.57

PnL

-$15.85

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$50.84

Value

$40.92

PnL

-$9.92

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sevilla FC

Invested

$30.73

Value

$31.91

PnL

+$1.18

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

HRTrading<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$20.73

Value

$20.69

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Sevilla FC

Invested

$5.47

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$1.42

Record

59%

30673-21383 (52056)

ghorrock<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$26.18

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Sevilla FC

Invested

$35.8

Value

$2.47

PnL

+$7.76

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

RN1CTR<$100

Sevilla FC

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Research grade

NeutralGetafe CF at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Getafe CF

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Getafe CF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.