Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (74%). 9 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-11-01?

9 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (39%) · No at 27¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 1

Yes74¢No26¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 39%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.9K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 26.5¢

-54% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 23 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares19,474

Combined PnL+$2.2K

No9 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares23,681

Combined PnL-$181.44

Yes — 61%No — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 46¢	$3.9K	$6.1K	+$2.1K	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Noavg 59¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0	54% 732-617 (1349)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 59¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$34.6	49% 167-174 (341)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yesavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$14.95	51% 1526-1478 (3004)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Noavg 62¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$112.83	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 58.8¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$8.07	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 40.8¢	$867.91	$900.65	+$32.74	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
RN1	Yesavg 68.3¢	$781.68	$818.88	+$37.19	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
OL OldZz	Yesavg 42¢	$735	$750.26	-$8.75	47% 103-117 (220)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yesavg 58.1¢	$495.78	$490.64	-$5.14	52% 13925-12698 (26623)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.1¢	$285	$367.62	+$82.62
└ No leg	Noavg 42.8¢	$210.78	$123.02	-$87.76
MI MinevaJCTR	Noavg 32¢	$469.09	$384.49	-$35.94	57% 1048-784 (1832)
AN Anon455	Yesavg 71.9¢	$361.94	$369.79	+$7.84	55% 3007-2438 (5445)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Yesavg 42¢	$340	$347.06	-$4.05	61% 129-81 (210)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 65.2¢	$290.73	$318.88	+$28.15	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Yesavg 42¢	$772.72	$312.95	-$11.59	53% 454-406 (860)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$269.12	$252.59	-$16.53	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68¢	$180.69	$189.99	+$9.3
└ No leg	Noavg 40.3¢	$88.43	$62.6	-$25.83
HRTrading	Yesavg 51.8¢	$182.96	$240.66	+$57.7	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 58.6¢	$144.06	$145.14	+$1.08	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
FO foooool	Yesavg 70.2¢	$124.22	$113	-$11.22	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816	Yesavg 72¢	$100	$99.31	-$0.69	70% 337-144 (481)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$96.24	$98.04	+$1.8	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 44.7¢	$54.14	$81.37	+$27.23	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$53.1	$54.02	+$0.92	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
Abdihakeem<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$40.95	$40.95	+$0	53% 92-82 (174)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 43.5¢	$28.74	$18.81	-$9.93	58% 18782-13844 (32626)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$3,910.22

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

pltrkr111CTR

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

732-617 (1349)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$4,083.79

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$34.6

Record

49%

167-174 (341)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yes

Invested

$2,167.1

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$14.95

Record

51%

1526-1478 (3004)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Invested

$1,999.43

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$112.83

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,879.82

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$8.07

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$867.91

Value

$900.65

PnL

+$32.74

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$781.68

Value

$818.88

PnL

+$37.19

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

OldZz

Yes

Invested

$735

Value

$750.26

PnL

-$8.75

Record

47%

103-117 (220)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$495.78

Value

$490.64

PnL

-$5.14

Record

52%

13925-12698 (26623)

Both legs:

Yes$28558.1¢+$82.62

No$210.7842.8¢-$87.76

MinevaJCTR

Invested

$469.09

Value

$384.49

PnL

-$35.94

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

Anon455

Yes

Invested

$361.94

Value

$369.79

PnL

+$7.84

Record

55%

3007-2438 (5445)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Yes

Invested

$340

Value

$347.06

PnL

-$4.05

Record

61%

129-81 (210)

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$290.73

Value

$318.88

PnL

+$28.15

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

oxe78sh4w98

Yes

Invested

$772.72

Value

$312.95

PnL

-$11.59

Record

53%

454-406 (860)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$269.12

Value

$252.59

PnL

-$16.53

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

Both legs:

Invested

$182.96

Value

$240.66

PnL

+$57.7

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$144.06

Value

$145.14

PnL

+$1.08

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$124.22

Value

$113

PnL

-$11.22

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$99.31

PnL

-$0.69

Record

70%

337-144 (481)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$96.24

Value

$98.04

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.14

Value

$81.37

PnL

+$27.23

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$53.1

Value

$54.02

PnL

+$0.92

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Abdihakeem<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.95

Value

$40.95

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

92-82 (174)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$28.74

Value

$18.81

PnL

-$9.93

Record

58%

18782-13844 (32626)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 23 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.