Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sevilla FC leading at halftime?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 9.0¢ · $27 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 67%
$27.26
-$59.99
Research grade
AvoidNo at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $3.3 | $10.01 | +$6.71 | 50% 7122-7165 (14287) |
MI MinevaJCTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $81.8 | $9.9 | -$71.9 | 57% 1048-784 (1832) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.6¢ | $2.15 | $7.35 | +$5.2 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.