Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 45¢ · $919 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
1 arb excluded
$918.73
$0.26
44¢ → 44.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 44¢ | $222.43 | $222.43 | -$0 | 53% 16101-14270 (30371) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 56¢ | $223.99 | $221.99 | -$2 | 55% 7311-5880 (13191) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 44¢ | $199.21 | $201.47 | +$2.26 | 59% 46810-33082 (79892) |
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $169.01 | $173.08 | +$4.07 | 72% 6823-2615 (9438) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43¢ | $98.07 | $101.49 | +$3.42 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55¢ | $70.94 | $71.58 | +$0.64 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $84.69 | $84.69 | -$0 | 57% 29203-21595 (50798) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $15.07 | $15.07 | -$0 | 56% 14204-11005 (25209) |
Invested
$222.43
Value
$222.43
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
16101-14270 (30371)
0xheavy888Invested
$223.99
Value
$221.99
PnL
-$2
Record
55%
7311-5880 (13191)
Invested
$199.21
Value
$201.47
PnL
+$2.26
Record
59%
46810-33082 (79892)
Invested
$169.01
Value
$173.08
PnL
+$4.07
Record
72%
6823-2615 (9438)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.69
Value
$84.69
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
29203-21595 (50798)
Invested
$15.07
Value
$15.07
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
14204-11005 (25209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.