Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sevilla FC (100%) · Sevilla FC at 85¢ · $7K held · ended Sep 6
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Neutral
Sevilla FC
5
Sevilla FC 100%
$6.7K
-$297.93
87.2¢ → 84.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSevilla FC at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Sevilla FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Sevilla FCavg 85.3¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | -$32.85 | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
MI MinevaJ | Sevilla FCavg 90.8¢ | $2.7K | $2.2K | -$252.77 | 56% 1117-870 (1987) |
 RN1 | Sevilla FCavg 86¢ | $1.0K | $983.16 | -$17.45 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
CA Cannae | Sevilla FCavg 80¢ | $120.24 | $126.84 | +$6.6 | 53% 16518-14663 (31181) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Sevilla FCavg 98.9¢ | $10 | $8.54 | -$1.46 | 66% 23991-12174 (36165) |
Invested
$3,425.04
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$32.85
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
Invested
$2,707.34
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$252.77
Record
56%
1117-870 (1987)
RN1Invested
$1,000.61
Value
$983.16
PnL
-$17.45
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
Invested
$120.24
Value
$126.84
PnL
+$6.6
Record
53%
16518-14663 (31181)
Invested
$10
Value
$8.54
PnL
-$1.46
Record
66%
23991-12174 (36165)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.