Will Valencia CF win on 2026-11-01?

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 75¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 1

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.1K

Combined PnL

-$92.91

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 74.5¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 20 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares19,392

Combined PnL+$449.73

Yes9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares14,118

Combined PnL-$542.64

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 72.9¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$77.49	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 70.7¢	$3.9K	$4.1K	+$172.31	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
RN1	Noavg 72.9¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$53.73	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$373.35	38% 506-818 (1324)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 70.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$36.41	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.3¢	$906.94	$960.49	+$53.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.8¢	$785.93	$695.98	-$89.95
VeryLucky888	Noavg 70¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$90	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423d	Noavg 74¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$9.62	50% 652-640 (1292)
CA Cannae	Noavg 70¢	$736.17	$783.49	+$47.33	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
CA calm919CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$630	$595	-$35	68% 269-128 (397)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$635.93	$538.38	-$95.26	53% 2255-1981 (4236)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 73.4¢	$278.19	$276.58	-$1.61	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$190	$161.5	-$28.5	61% 129-84 (213)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$160.31	$151.41	-$8.91	53% 462-411 (873)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.9¢	$19.13	$18.11	-$1.02	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 73¢	$17.06	$17.41	+$0.35	61% 13796-8679 (22475)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 73¢	$14.6	$14.9	+$0.3	51% 1532-1483 (3015)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 74¢	$14.23	$14.33	+$0.1	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$13.39	$13.13	-$0.26	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$5.2	$5.1	-$0.1	51% 6082-5802 (11884)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 71¢	$2.45	$2.57	+$0.12	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.98	$1.74	-$0.24	66% 23472-11826 (35298)

Anon455

Invested

$4,155.22

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$77.49

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,886.64

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$172.31

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

RN1

Invested

$2,449.17

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$53.73

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,489

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$373.35

Record

38%

506-818 (1324)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,692.87

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$36.41

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Both legs:

No$906.9470.3¢+$53.55

Yes$785.9328.8¢-$89.95

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,399.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$90

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

0xbf2342fds234423d

Invested

$1,423.07

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$9.62

Record

50%

652-640 (1292)

Cannae

Invested

$736.17

Value

$783.49

PnL

+$47.33

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

calm919CTR

Yes

Invested

$630

Value

$595

PnL

-$35

Record

68%

269-128 (397)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Yes

Invested

$635.93

Value

$538.38

PnL

-$95.26

Record

53%

2255-1981 (4236)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$278.19

Value

$276.58

PnL

-$1.61

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR

Yes

Invested

$190

Value

$161.5

PnL

-$28.5

Record

61%

129-84 (213)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Yes

Invested

$160.31

Value

$151.41

PnL

-$8.91

Record

53%

462-411 (873)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.13

Value

$18.11

PnL

-$1.02

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$17.06

Value

$17.41

PnL

+$0.35

Record

61%

13796-8679 (22475)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$14.6

Value

$14.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$14.23

Value

$14.33

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.39

Value

$13.13

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

foooool<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$0.24

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 20 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.