Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 95¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$6.9K
$1.2K
72.9¢ → 94.5¢
+30% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 70.1¢ | $2.2K | $3.0K | +$778.65 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 78.4¢ | $1.6K | $2.0K | +$333.26 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 71.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$18.67 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
FO foooool | Underavg 70¢ | $124.95 | $168.68 | +$43.73 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 29.7¢ | $14.19 | $2.63 | -$11.56 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 14¢ | $5.6 | $2.2 | -$3.4 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $2.22 | $1.64 | -$0.58 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $1.45 | +$0.15 | 52% 7507-6801 (14308) |
RN1Invested
$2,239.29
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$778.65
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$1,627.61
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$333.26
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$1,765.65
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$18.67
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$124.95
Value
$168.68
PnL
+$43.73
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
Invested
$14.19
Value
$2.63
PnL
-$11.56
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$3.4
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.22
Value
$1.64
PnL
-$0.58
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
7507-6801 (14308)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.