Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (11%) · Over at 51¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 1

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 11%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

-$12.52

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares16,416

Combined PnL+$108.92

Under8 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares14,839

Combined PnL-$121.44

Over — 11%Under — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marketmesh	Overavg 49.8¢	$8.2K	$8.3K	+$108.92	58% 96-69 (165)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Underavg 50¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$30	47% 2510-2803 (5313)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$30	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 50.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$11.41	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$990	-$30	53% 5632-4970 (10602)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 50.6¢	$794.08	$776.16	-$17.92	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 50.6¢	$72.81	$71.28	-$1.53	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$50	$49.5	-$0.5	51% 6503-6162 (12665)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.48	-$0.08	48% 2393-2622 (5015)

marketmesh

Over

Invested

$8,181.4

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$108.92

Record

58%

96-69 (165)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Under

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$30

Record

47%

2510-2803 (5313)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,515

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$30

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,012.36

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$11.41

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$1,020

Value

$990

PnL

-$30

Record

53%

5632-4970 (10602)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$794.08

Value

$776.16

PnL

-$17.92

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72.81

Value

$71.28

PnL

-$1.53

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

51%

6503-6162 (12665)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.